Find any race in the Betmix database

We’ve added a neat new tool to Betmix called RACE SEARCH. Using this tool you can search our entire database to find any race.  Search by date, track, post time, surface, race type, distance, age/sex, purse or claiming price.

The results will display a list of all matching races – clicking on any race will open it up in MixMaker where you can create a mix or test your existing mixes on similar race types.

Using the Race Search feature will improve your mixes tremendously, and allow you to build very specific mixes for any track or race type. If you have created a ‘super mix’ for 1 mile turf allowance races, then just search for matching races running today and you will have a short list of races to bet on. This is an enormously helpful tool and we hope you take advantage of all it has to offer.

The race search tool is one of many exciting new features we will be adding in the coming months, and we cant wait to roll them all out…

In order to test your Mixes or create new Mixes, you need to test them against historical results. We have a couple of ways for you to do that….

RACE RESULTS
When you look at the race results page, you can select a date and track,  and then see the results for races on that day.  You can test any of your saved mixes to see how profitable they would have been, or you can create mixes using the results as a guide.

The results box shows you what would have happened if you bet $2 win, place and show on your top ranked horse, and if you boxed the top 3 ranked horses in a $1 exacta and the top 4 in a $1 Trifecta.

You can see from the above results that the mix we used for that day would have returned a profit on Win, Place, Show and Exacta bets and a loss on Trifecta bets.  As you change the factors you are using in your mix or give more or less weight to a particular factor you are using, the results box will update instantly.  You can also apply any saved mix you have to the results and they will update.  This is useful if you are the type of handicapper that uses the same mix for each race type.

If you design your Mixes for specific race types, then you will want to use the My Race Report tool. There you can select a group of similar races using the search features.  So, for example, if you wanted to see how well your Mix did on the past fifteen 7F dirt Claiming races at Gulfstream Park you could do that by searching for those races, and then adding them to a report.

Once you have found a group of races that you want to use in the results, you can click each race to add it to your report.  You give that report a name, then save it, and you can then test it using the results data for those races.

Now, using a group of similar races, you can create a very accurate Mix for predicting the winners of 7F Dirt Claiming races at Gulfstream Park.

For more information on how to use horse racing results data to win more bets watch this tutorial video.

How much does a Betmix membership cost?
For only $50 per month, you can have full and complete access to all of the races and handicapping tools offered by BetMix. Yearly subscriptions are $500 (a $100 savings), and a daily pass is $8. Monthly and yearly subscribers have the ability to access our historic race database, making it easy to test your saved mixes against previously run races. Monthly and Yearly subscribers also have access to MixMaker, MixLibrary, All Races Report, Create/Test My Report and Race Results. The $8 Daily Pass gives you 24 hr access to all tracks and races currently running and the ability to save mixes. The Daily Pass does not give you access to the historical race database, MixMaker, MixLibrary or All Races Report. More information can be found here Membership Options.

What makes BETMIX better than any other handicapping site?
BETMIX possesses the most advanced and easiest handicapping software with more options and analytic power than any other program currently available. With 40 sliders each representing ranking power for a specific handicapping factor, BETMIX gives you the power to choose not only what is important to you, but lets you determine HOW IMPORTANT it is in your decision. Once you create a MIX you can save and name that MIX, and apply it to any race with similar conditions (Subscribers only) and test that MIX against previously run races to see how accurate your MIX is.

What do the various factors mean?
Click on each factor’s name and you will see a brief description of what it is. For a more detailed explanation please visit the Handicapping Factors page.

How much weight should I assign to each factor?
That is entirely up to you. Each user will have their own idea about how important a particular factor is in a race. It is important to remember that certain factors will have a bigger impact depending on what type of race you are handicapping. Obviously, Turf Pedigree would not be turned on for a dirt race, and the Lifetime earnings factors would not mater much in a maiden race. For those looking to get started with a MIX, here are some settings for a TURF RACE:

SPEED
Best Lifetime Speed Number: 8
Best Speed Number at today’s track: 2
Best Speed Turf: 8
Best Speed Fast Track: 0
Best Speed Distance: 6
Best Speed Last 3: 0
Avg. Speed Last 3: 0
Avg. Best 2 of Last 3: 10

PACE
Last E1 Pace: 0
Last E2 Pace: 0
Last Turn Time: 0
Avg of Last 3 E1 Pace: 0
Avg of Last 3 E2 Pace: 0
Avg of Last 3 Turn Time: 0
Last late Pace: 0
Avg of Last 3 Late Pace: 6

EARNINGS
Horses Beaten: 8
Avg. Earnings Today’s Distance: 3
Avg. Earnings Today’s Track: 2
Avg. Turf Earnings: 8
Avg. All Weather Earnings: 0
Avg. Off Track Earnings: 0
Avg. Lifetime Earnings: 5

TRAINER/JOCKEY
Trainer Current Meet: 4
Jockey Current Meet: 2
Trainer Current Year: 8
Jockey Current Year: 4

PEDIGREE
Dirt Pedigree Rating: 0
Mud Pedigree Rating: 0
Turf Pedigree Rating: 9
Distance Pedigree Rating: 7

What do the Green and Red arrows mean?
There are two columns in the results S and F and you may see a green or red arrow within that column.

The arrows were put in place to give you an idea of the horse’s form.

A Green Up Arrow under the S column means the last three races have shown consecutive improvements in speed numbers. Example: (100, 92, 90) for last three races with the 100 being the most recent race.

A Red Down Arrow under the S column means the last three races have shown consecutive declines in speed numbers. Example: (90,92,98) for last three races with the 90 being the most recent race.

A Green Up Arrow under the F column means the last three races have shown consecutive improvements in finish position. Example: (3rd, 5th, 7th) for last three races with 3rd being the most recent race.

A Red Down Arrow under the F column means the last three races have shown consecutive declines in finish position.. Example: (5th, 3rd, 2nd) for last three races with the 5th being the most recent race.

BETMIX HANDICAPPING SOFTWARE REVIEWS
The following Betmix reviews are unsolicited testimonials from users.  We believe that Betmix is the best handicapping software available, but don’t take our word for it – read what our users are saying about the Betmix horse racing software and how it has changed their game.

I’ve been using Betmix for 6 months  and in an earlier comment, I said “Betmix has paid for itself (and more) every month thus far”. I’ve tried using Betmix a variety of ways, but keep coming back to a three horse exacta box.  In the first three weeks of September I’ve cashed several tickets playing the exacta box and four of them combined paid for the cost of a year’s subscription!  Some of the selections that came in were 20 –1 and greater, and the latest was 54 – 1. I have no doubt that if I had manually handicapped those races I would not have picked the long shots. If you are still sitting on the sidelines trying to decide if you want to subscribe to Betmix, you’re missing out on a superior product. - Ray D., Buckeye, AZ.

Yesterday was my best day since signing up with bet mix. I told you previously that I had developed my own mixes after many trials and errors..yesterday was the opening day at DELMAR and you know how hard it is to handicap opening day cards….I had two best bet plays  one won and paid 62.80 in the 9th race  and set up the late pick 3 that paid me a nice 1550.00 for a 4 dollar wager I played the pick4 with the first leg running 3rd..the next three were all top picks….all in all I netted 2100.00 for the day….I am sold on BETMIX – Bob Sayers

I’ve been handicapping horse races for 35 years and like many of you, I’ve tried a variety of so called systems and methods as well as a couple of computer programs. Nothing has even come close to Betmix. I discovered it over a year ago, but didn’t have the time to devote to working with the program. In March 2014 I decided to give it another try and started with a monthly subscription. After using it for two months I realized the value of Betmix and purchased the annual subscription.

Betmix has paid for itself (and more) every month thus far. The time savings alone is worth the price. I can handicap races that used to take me hours in a matter of minutes. When I first started working with Betmix I didn’t think I could wean myself from having the DRF with me at the track or OTB to handicap. It didn’t take long before I realized everything needed is within Betmix. Once you’ve created your mixes, you can “handicap” a race in less than a minute. 

I’ve learned a lot using Betmix, but two lessons stand out among the rest. First, some of the factors I thought important and used heavily in my handicapping in the past turned out to be not that important. Secondly, The factors and weights used to predict the winning horses at track A are most likely not going to be the same factors that predict the winners at track B. Prior to using Betmix, I focused on the same factors (speed, class, form, trainer & jockey) at every track, giving them equal weight. 

The tutorials and articles on the Blog are extremely helpful. When I can’t find the answers I’m looking for or need an opinion I then turn to Dave Williams, creator of Betmix. Dave is  one of the reasons I enjoy working with Betmix. He has taken the time to answer my questions and responds very quickly. Another reason is that Dave is constantly enhancing his program, adding new features and dimensions to further improve his product. I encourage you to read this on-line article about Betmix. I think that alone might be enough for you to give Betmix a try. - Ray D, Buckeye, AZ

“I have 45 years of horse racing experience as a bettor and owner. I made my first bet 50 ( at the Preakness by the way)years ago and have been losing every since. Since I met you, I have won a lot of money.  I just need to continue to refine study  and get better. When I do, watch out! I plan to clean up at Saratoga and Del Mar this summer! Being introduced to Betmix  is a life changing experience for me. That seems like a extraordinary statement , but true. I really mean that! One must be willing to spend the time learning, but once you get it, there is money in the cards. Discipline is critical! Like California Chrome in the Belmont yesterday, my mix said “no way”.  Logic and emotion and  common sense says he should win, but you have to bet what the mix says! I played the horses that were in my Mix and hit the superfecta. I have complete confidence in Betmix. I don’t even bother to buy the racing form anymore.” - Robert J. Carper, NY.

“You were so right!! The Test My Report tool is the software that I and an old timer horse player friend of mine always wondered if existed in this day and age of computer technology.  I used to try and do the same thing with a pencil and paper, only to wind up pulling my hair out.

BetMix is far more advanced and useable when compared to the $150 per month DRF subscription cost.  My friend and I always said that horse race handicapping is a “deep ocean” of facts and figures that can get lost in the currents while figuring.  BetMix is like the “submarine” of fact finding and organizing and prioritizing  for the horse player.  I really feel like a professional handicapper now, with an edge that I almost want to keep secret. ” - Bernie D.

“Having been a handicapper for leisure and professionally over the last 50 years, it is seldom I congratulate anyone for a new innovative handicapping product that actually works. I would like to congratulate whoever came up with BETMIX.

It has worked remarkably well and that was before I knew exactly what I was doing. What is amazing to me is the factors I had always considered the most important in handicapping do not seem to bear as much weight in coming up with a workable and profitable mix.  I had to watch the tutorials a few times to figure it out, but after a few viewings, it was easy. With the addition of “Create My Report”, it got even better. Once the reports are complete for each track, it can’t get any easier. Whoever thought of this idea sure got it right and deserves a hearty congratulations.” – B. Stevens

“I love this method of handicapping. It has cut out a lot of hand computed math and am able to handicap races in a fraction of the time” RM – Louisville, KY

“I started playing with the free race, 10 minutes later I signed up, and then 8 hours later I finally took a break.  This is fascinating!”
DP – New Orleans, LA

“I came across your program and want to thank you for it. I have been handicapping for over 40 years and you are the first to come up with something original that the handicapper is in control of instead of a couple of numbers on paper.” MM – Detroit, MI

“Finally!  Handicapping software that does not require me to buy and load my own data.  This software is easy to use, and I have total over the results.  I can use my own systems and am not restricted to how somebody else says I should handicap. Thanks.” JW – Columbus, OH

“MixMaker is awesome.  I created a mix for a race at Santa Anita using MixMaker and then used that mix 3 races later to hit a $400 trifecta. Genius!!!” AH – Las Vegas, NV

“Appreciate the email, that explains things.  Used Betmix at Saratoga and did very well.  Hope to do the same at some other tracks, have to say I am having a blast.”
RL – Buffalo, NY

“Just got back from taking my wife to dinner and had to write you.  My mix had a $60 horse on top and the $320 exacta.  I would never have come up with those two horses using the track program.  Can’t wait for tomorrow!”  GF – Frankfort, KY

New Betmix tools and features to help you win more races!       

Hope everyone had a profitable Triple Crown season!

We’ve added a few new features that we hope you will find helpful:

Color Coded Running Lines  
When you bring up the Horse Information Box (Click on the horse’s name) you will now see running lines.  We have color coded them to help you easily see the running style of the horse.  The colors are displayed in shades of:  RED (Far back), YELLOW (Mid pack) and GREEN (On the lead).
Here is an example of a classic “Closer”, as the colors in the running lines go from Red to Green.”

This horse is a typical “Front runner” who is on or near the lead throughout the race

New Tools for Scoring Mixes
When you test or create a Mix in Race Results or Test My Report you are now able to see the profit, number of wins and win %. You will find this useful when you are creating a Mix since you can now build your mixes to find the highest ROI or the most Winners in a particular category.  If you are looking at a sample of 15 races you may find that the most profitable Mix returned a profit of $50 on win bets, but it only picked 3 winners who paid around $25 each, or you may decide to go with the most consistent Mix that picked 9 winners who were shorter prices and returned a profit of $30. As you know, there are several strategies for building Mixes and many users have started creating several Mixes for each race type.  One Mix may focus on finding the most winners, another on potential longshots, and yet another to find the most Trifectas.  Depending on how you like to bet, you should create multiple Mixes tailored to the types of bets you make.

Here is an example of a Mix for 6f dirt Claiming  races at Finger Lakes. Looking at the last 25 races that were run under those conditions the top ranked horse ran at least 3rd in 24 out of 25 races.  The one race that it did not run 3rd was a field of only 4 horses, so there was no show betting! It ran second in that race (05/27). The profit for making a show bet on those 25 races is not enormous, but if you are Show bettor or are looking for a Key horse in your Trifectas or Supers, this would be a good place to start.  If you are interested in adding this Mix to your saved mixes it can be found in the MixLibrary and is called ” Finger Lakes 6f Dirt Clm”

MixMaker Results added
In the past when using MixMaker to help you build a Mix you had to click a button to find the race results and then manually enter that information.  Now the information for the top 3 horses is added automatically.  You can also see the finish position for each horse in the race which helps when you go to “tweak” the mix.

We hope that you all find these new features to be useful and that they help you cash more tickets. We have several exciting new features in the works and will continue to work towards making Betmix the most accurate and easy to use handicapping software available!

Betmix offers users the ability to handicap races using Mixes, which are a group of factors and values. The Betmix tools offer you a very easy, fast and accurate way to handicap. Creating mixes with the help of MixMaker, or doing deep analysis by creating a report and testing the results will provide you with very accurate insight into how you should handicap races.

Understanding that many people are used to looking at races with a traditional Past Performance view like they would see in the track program or racing form, we have created the PPview (Past Performance View) that will give you a familiar view of the race while also providing you with control over how you see the data and giving yuu the ability to search and rank horses.

The Past Performance view can be seen by clicking the PPView Button:

When you click that button you will see all of the horses with their past performance data in one screen.  One obvious change in comparison to the track program or racing form that you will notice immediately is the color coded running lines.  At any point of call in the race if a horse if far back that position will be be highlighted in red, and if they are on the lead it will be highlighted in green.  Positions in between are shades of orange or yellow.

Looking at the colors, you can easily see which horses are front runners or which horses may be closers.

Each column in the past performance view is sort-able.  You can click on the column headers and the data in that column will be sorted.

You can type values into the search bar and the races you see will be limited to what you searched for.  For example, type BEL 8f Turf and you will only see races that were run at Belmont going 8 furlongs on the Turf.  If you type ‘Rosario’ into the search box you will see every horse that was ridden by Rosario and can easily see which horses he has ridden in the past and compare that to who he is riding today.

If you click the “Head2Head” button:

You will only see races where horses have run against each other.  This gives you a very quick way to see the key races and find out who has beaten who.

The best way to understand the PPview tool is to jump in ans start playing with it.  You can try it out on the Free Race of the Day, or watch a detailed tutorial video that shows you how to use the Past Performance View.

Saratoga Longshots

Saratoga is famous for longshot winners. The large field sizes, evenly matched fields, and trainers and owners who are aiming for a win at the track can produce some very high priced winners. What tools does Betmix provide to help you look for those longshots and how will they help you?

The first step is to find which types of races tend to produce more longshots than favorites.  Using the Create My Report Tool you can search by race type and by the amount the horse paid.  Here is the breakdown of the 2013 Saratoga Meet.

The race type that tends to produce the most longshots is Turf Route Races, where 15% of such races produced winners that paid over $20, and 47% of the Turf Route Races at Saratoga had winners pay over $10.  On the other hand, the Dirt Route races tended to produce more winning favorites, with only 5% of those races resulting in winners that paid over $20 and the majority of winners (65%) returned less than $10, with 35% paying $6.00 or less.  So, if you want to find longshots, this type of information will lead you to the types of races you need to handicap.

Once you have the race types that result in more longshot winners you can create a Report that will allow you to analyze what handicapping factors those longshot winners had in common that you can use going forward.

In Create My Report (found in the Tools Dropdown) you can enter the criteria that will build a report for Saratoga Longshots.  Use the following criteria to build the report:
Date Range: July 19, 2013 – September 2 2013
Race Track: Saratoga
Surface: Turf & Inner Turf
Race Type: Select all
Distance: set the distance range to 7.5 furlongs – 1 1/2 Miles
Win Payoff: Set the minimum to $20 and the maximum to $100

You can then add the first 20 races to a report and analyze that in Test My Report. Bringing that report up in Test My Report you can click the Power Factors button to see which factors for Turf Route Races at Saratoga where the win price was greater than $20 produced the most winners, and use those factors to help you build a Mix that you can use to handicap those races at this year’s Saratoga meet.  Your Factor report will look very similar to this (depending on which 20 races you selected to include in your report)

Building a Mix weighing the most important factors and not using the least important factors you can then test how many of the Longshot Races you would have hit.  Its a good idea to break this out in more detail and focus on specific Turf Route Races: By distance and Class.  All of that can be done by making the criteria in the Report match the types of races you are looking at.

Of course, this type of analysis can be done for any track, distance, surface, class or pay range.  Many users create multiple mixes for the race types they play and can use this tool to screen for longshots, favorites or other scenarios.

Winning Posts

This graphic will display the winning posts for this race type and allow you to determine if there is any bias. When looking at certain race types you may decide that the rail is the best place to be, or that a horse has the best chance of winning from the middle or outside. Mousing over any column will show you the number of winners for that particular post.  On the main display you will also see the Program number for each horse and their actual post if it differs from the program number.

Winning Payout

The winning payout graphic will show you how often favorites or longshots win this race type.  It is broken down into four categories: $2.10-$6.00, $6.01 -$10.00, $10.01 – $20.00 and $20.01+.  This data will let you know if this is a race type that is predictable by the public or not, longshot players can use this screen to find races that tend to produce longshot winners and focus their handicapping on finding a long horse with a big chance.

Races

The Races tab will show you a list of all similar races and allow you to sort by date or payout.  You can click on any of those races and open them up in MixMaker.

Find a Dominant horse using the Race Profile Statistics

We introduced the Race Profile statistics a few weeks ago. You will see them at the bottom of each individual race page and they provide information about winning posts, average winner payout and details about the most predictive factors for each race:

There is a lot of information contained in the Race Profile Stats, and many ways to interpret that data and use it to handicap. One of the many reasons that betting on horses is so intriguing and rewarding is that aside from winning money, there are numerous approaches that you can take to figure out the puzzle. Let’s take a look at one way you can use those stats to find great betting opportunities.

Let’s start by going over what the information within the Winning Factors box means.  When you look at the factors box you will see information about the most predictive Factors ranked by their ability to predict Win, Place, Show, and a tab called Accuracy that ranks the factors by their predictive ability to get the horses in the correct order from top to bottom.

For this method we are just going to focus on the Win % Factors.

In the above example, I am on the Win % tab which shows the most predictive win factors, and I have clicked on the SPEED category which will display only the factors based on speed.

The race we are looking at is an 8f Dirt CLM race at Indiana Grand from yesterday. If you are a subscriber you can view the race as you follow along.

For 8F Dirt Clm. races at Indiana Grand, the most predictive Speed Factor is AVG SPEED LAST 3. Next to that you see the top 4 horses within that category (6,8,2,5) and the number 32%.  The 32% number means that over the sample of similar races that we have in our database, horses that are ranked the highest within that factor (Avg. Speed Last 3) win 32% of the time. The next most predictive factor is Avg. Best 2 of Last 3, and that factor has accurately predicted the winner 26% of the time.

Looking at the list of factors and the top horses within each factor you could assume that the #6 horse was going to be a major player in this race.  He is ranked 1st in the top 3 most predictive speed factors for this race type.  But, what you cant see by simply looking at the top 4 horses is how closely ranked they are.

In this race there were 3 scratches (#3, #11,#12).  If you are following along at home go ahead and scratch those horses from the race.

Now, lets turn on the factor for Avg Speed Last 3 and see how closely the horses are ranked (By “turn on”, I mean give the slider for Best Speed Last 3 a value)

After moving the slider for Avg Speed Last 3, and giving it a value (Turning it “ON”) we can see in the rankings view how closely the horses are ranked within that particular factor.

Although the #6 horse is ranked on top he is not “dominant“.  There are 3 other horses that are very closely ranked within the factor Avg Speed Last 3. If you turn on the other most predictive speed factor (Avg Best 2 of Last 3) you will see 5 horses in Green.

Although the #6 is ranked on top within the 3 most predictive Speed Factors, he is not heads and shoulders above the rest of the horses. If that is the case then how much importance can you give those factors since there are so many closely ranked horses?

What this tells us is that there are a handful of horses in this race that are equally fast.  We know which speed factors are most predictive at finding a winner, but we cant be very confident in any one horse since they all have similar abilities.

IN A RACE WHERE SPEED SEEMS TO BE RELATIVELY EQUAL LOOK FOR A DOMINANT PACE HORSE. 

Now let’s take a look at the Pace factors and see which one is most predictive:

This chart shows us that the most predictive pace factor is Avg. of Last 3 E2 Pace. The top ranked horses for that factor are (2,4,10,1) and based on similar races the horse that is ranked on top within that factor wins 42% of the time.

When we “turn on” the factor for Avg. of Last 3 E2 Pace we see these rankings:

The #2 horse, (Stormanminster) is ranked on top.  He has 100 points and the 2nd ranked horse has 89.8 points.  He is the only horse in “Green” and has a 10.2 point lead over the 2nd ranked horse.  When you have a horse with at least a 5 point lead over his rivals we consider that dominant.  In this case he is very dominant, having over a 10 point lead.

We know from the most predictive factor table for pace that the horse who ranks highest in Avg. of Last 3 E2 Pace wins 42% of the time, and we also know that the speed factors do not indicate a dominant speed horse.

The #2 horse won and paid a very generous $28.60.

Look for dominant horses within highly predictive factors
In the above example, the #2 horse was the dominant horse for the Avg of last 3 E2 Pace category. From our race stats we know that factor was very predictive, pointing you to the winner 42% of the time.  If the factor was only able to predict the winner 20% of the time then a dominant horse would not be that important.

Speed and Pace are probably most important
When there are several equally matched speed horses finding a dominant pace horse is very helpful, and when the horses are evenly matched in Pace look for a dominant speed horse.  Finding a dominant horse in other categories like Pedigree, Form, etc. seems to be less important.  While those factor groups are valuable as part of a mix, they do not necessarily dictate how a race will be run.

We will be enhancing the Race Profile Statistics in the near future to indicate which factors contain dominate horses.  Until then it will take you a few clicks to figure it out on the screen.

We can’t promise that this approach will work every time (nothing ever does!) but it is a very useful approach when analyzing a race.  To win consistently at the races you need an edge, and this approach can provide you with one.

Analyzing the data is the key to solving the puzzle

When handicapping a horse race most people look at the relative abilities of each horse and judge them according to the past performance information they see in the racing program.  Information about where and what types of races each horse has been in recently, how fast the horse ran, the horse’s running lines, information about the trainer and jockey and several other pieces of information can be considered by the handicapper as they try to figure out who will win. In a race with 10 horses you could potentially be considering several hundred data points for the field and managing that type of data load using only your head is extremely difficult.

Lets assume that you studied the racing form for 20 minutes and decided that horse #8 was going to win the race.  You place your bets – and as you predicted, #8 wins the race by 2 lengths and rewards you with a $10.00 win payoff. Congratulations!  Your work paid off, and now you are on to the next race.  You start the process all over again… Can you duplicate how you handicapped the last race again?  If you were only judging the horses by a few factors you probably could, but if you were considering multiple handicapping factors and assigning a different level of importance to each one it may be hard to analyze each race in the same way.  Or, the way in which you handicapped that winning race may not be the best way to handicap the next race.  If that race was a 6f dirt claiming race, and the next race is a 10F turf stakes race, chances are that you need to consider a different set of data points.

Which handicapping factors are important in each race type?

At a typical race track you have sprint races (races run at 7 furlongs or less) and route races (8 furlongs and longer – a furlong is equal to 1/8 of a mile).  Some are run on dirt, some on turf and some tracks have a synthetic all-weather surface.  You have maiden races, claiming races, allowance races, stakes and several other variations of class levels.  The factors that are important in one race may not mean much in another.

In order to determine the most predictive factors for each race, Betmix looks at all of the similar races in our database and ranks each individual factor in order for its ability to accurately predict which horse will win. As an example, if you were looking at 6 furlong Allowance Optional Claiming races run at Churchill Downs Betmix would be able to tell you that the most important overall factor for predicting winners is Last E2 Pace.  The next most important factor would be the average of the best 2 speed numbers from the horses last 3 races.  Betmix currently looks at 45 factors.  These factors represent data for Speed, Form, Earnings, Trainer/Jockey, Class, Pace and Pedigree. When you know which factors have historically been most predictive for the race you are looking at you can focus on those horses who are ranked highly in those areas.

Using the Betmix software to analyze with accuracy and consistency

After looking at the race you are getting ready to handicap and determining which factors are the most important you can begin to construct a Mix.  A Mix is combination of factors and weights that tell the computer how to handicap the race. If you think of a Mix as you would a recipe it might make more sense.  A recipe for a cake might call for eggs, flour, sugar and butter.  A Mix for a 8 furlong turf allowance race at Saratoga might call for Last Late Pace, Best Speed on Turf, Jockey Current Year, Turf Pedigree and Average of Last 3 Race Classes.  Think of the factors you need to use as ingredients in your handicapping recipe.  The weight (importance) that you assign to each factor would be similar to how much of the cake ingredients you used.  In baking a cake you could use the correct ingredients, but in the wrong amounts, and you would end up with a mess. Same thing holds true for handicapping a race.

Building your Mix using Betmix handicapping data

Its easy to determine which factor are the most important in handicapping a race – just look at the race profile stats on the Betmix screen

The most predictive factors will point you in the right direction for adding the right “ingredients” to your mix, but you still need to know how much of each ingredient to use.  The amount that you would use is the “weighting” in Betmix.  As you build your mix you assign a numerical weight to each factor by using the sliders or by typing in a value by the factor name.

You can see a graphical representation of your mix, that shows you in a pie chart format how the factors are being weighted.

How do you know if your Mix will work?

The best way to test a mix is to run it against several similar past races.  You will then be able to see how accurate the mix was.  How many times did the top ranked horse run 1st, 2nd, or 3rd? How many times did it hit the exacta or trifecta? Would you have shown a profit overall?

Testing your mix is easy.  When you are looking at a race, you can click the “Race Profile Report” button and that will launch a screen that shows you all previous similar races.

After your profile report has launched you can apply a saved mix to that report, or create one on the fly.  The results box shows you how well your mix would have done for the group of races you are looking at.  Each time you make a change to your mix by either selecting a new factor or changing the weight of existing factors the results box will update.  The image below shows you the results of applying a mix to the last nineteen 8F dirt Allowance Optional Claiming races at Churchill Downs.

You can see that after we applied our mix to the group of similar races we would have won 12 of 19 races.  If we bet $2 to win on each of those horses our total bet amount would have been $38 ($19 x $2) and we would have received $61.40 in winnings for a profit of $23.40.  If we would have boxed the top 4 horses in each race in a $1 Trifecta it would have cost us $456 ($24 x 19 races) and we would have won $589.40 for a profit of $133.40.

You can modify this mix on the fly to see how adding a factor or increasing or decreasing the weight of a factor effects your overall results.  When you think that you have created the ideal mix for this race type you can save it and then apply that mix to similar races in the future.  When you save a mix you can give it a name and also define it by racetrack, distance, surface and race type.  When you are looking at an upcoming race you can easily sort your mixes to find the best option for the current race based on those criteria.

The handicapping software at Betmix allows you to create mixes and test them against historical races to see if you are using the correct factors.  Since the computer is handicapping each race the exact same way (using the factors and weights you specified) you will not make errors and you will know that in future races you will be using the exact process that has worked for you in the past.

Experiment with Betmix by taking a look at the free race of the day, or learn more about how to use this handicapping software by watching some handicapping tutorials.

Another quick handicapping angle…

A few handicapping angles using race profile stats.

The recently improved Race Profile statistics have generated a lot of feedback and enthusiasm. We have received several emails from users about how they use the stats to handicap and we wanted to share a few of those methods with you.It probably goes without saying, but please remember that nothing works 100% of the time. These angles are provided to give you ideas on how to use the stats and provide you with some inspiration for developing your own methods.

We have spot checked these and found them to be pretty good, but have not done any deep analysis to provide long term win/loss statistics.  Again, the purpose of these tips is to provide you with some ideas and perhaps give you a couple of new approaches to put in your handicapping toolbox.

#1 Finding A Single

If you make multi-race bets (Pick3, Pick4, etc.) you know how important it is to find a solid horse to use as s single to reduce the cost of the tickets.  This is simple method to use, and is great at identifying solid favorites that you should never ignore.

How to do it: Look at the top ranked horse in the overall rankings.  If that horse is also the top ranked horse in the top ranked factor it is a one star single.  If it is also the top ranked horse in the 2nd ranked factor it is a 2 star single, and so on. You’re not going to find any longshots using this method, but if you are looking for a likely winner this is an easy way to spot one.
#2 High ROI/High Accuracy

We received this angle from a user who also provided a spreadsheet of each of his picks using this method at Gulfstream Park in January and part of February.  His results showed that he made 144 bets ($4 per play) for a total of $576.00. He had 74 wins (51.3%), and collected $980.00 for a ROI of 70.22%.  His average winning payout was $13.25.How to do it: Looking at the top 3 factors only, find the factors with positive Win ROI.  If more than one of those 3 factors have positive win ROI’s then look at the Factor Accuracy score.  The factor with the highest Factor Accuracy is the one to use.  If none of the top 3 factors have positive ROI’s then skip the race.  If the factor has a positive win ROI , but the factor accuracy is not above 30 skip the race.  When you have a qualifying race you bet the top 2 horses for that factor to win.

#3 Pace Advantage in a top factor

We’ve talked about this before, but when a horse has a big advantage in a pace factor you can’t ignore it. The Race Profile statistics make finding those horses very easy, and can let you know when it matters.  If a horse has an advantage in a factor that is ranked very low overall its not meaningful, but when that factor is in the top 10 it can produce great results.How to do it: Click on the PACE filter to show only pace factors in the statistics box.  Look for a factor that is ranked within the top 10 and see if the top ranked horse has an advantage of 5 points or more.  If you find a horse that fits the bill, consider giving extra attention to that horse if it appears within the top four in one or more of the top speed factors.  A pace advantage combined with being competitive in speed is a winning combination.

#4 Top Factors in each category

In many races you will notice that most of the top factors come from one category – usually speed. When you put too much emphasis on one category your handicapping may be unbalanced.  An easy way to make sure that you get a comprehensive view of the race is to use top factors from each category. You can select the top factor in each category and add it to the BetPad, or you can give them a value with the sliders to create a mix. The values can all be equal, or you can weight them based on their win percentage.It may not be necessary to use the top factor from each category. If the top ranked factor in Pedigree is ranked 27th overall you can safely ignore that category all together.

#5 Use the last race

One user sent us this suggestion along with some documentation of how many exactas he played and hit.  Very impressive!How to do it: Click on the Races Tab to bring up a list of the races used in compiling the race profile stats

After clicking the races tab, you will see a list of all the races used to compile the date for this race type.  Click on the date of the most recent race and that race will open up in a new window in MixMaker.

When that race is loaded, look at the results and then look at the top ranked factors to find one that contained the top 3 finishers.

Now,look for the highest ranked factor that contained those top 3 horses.

Go back to the race you are currently handicapping and look at the top 4 horses for the factor you found, and box those in an exacta. Very easy, and the results were surprisingly good.

These are nice angles to use for quick handicapping, but in the long run you are going to have much more success creating mixes for specific race.  There is nothing wrong with using methods like this, they can produce good results and can be done very quickly.  Keep in mind that the purpose of sharing these angles is to show you that there is always more than one way to skin a cat, and at the end of the day the only thing that really matters is winning the race. It doesn’t matter if you used a mix that took you 6 hours to develop, or if you used one of these quick methods.  Cashing a ticket is all that counts!

We hope that you find something useful in these angles and that they inspire you to start looking at the data in new and profitable ways.

A few mixes to get you started at Keeneland

Available on both the desktop and mobile versions of Betmix, these buttons will give you a very accurate and quick way to handicap any race.

Clicking one of these buttons will create a mix for you based on the detailed race profile stats we compile for each race in Betmix.  Using these buttons individually or in combination can provide you with great handicapping angles in each race. As an example, if you are betting a superfecta, it would be a good idea to use the top ranked horse from each button.  If the top ranked horses are the same you can add the 2nd ranked horse to your tickets.

The TOP 10 button will create a mix based on the top 10 factors for the race type. It will give the most weight to the top ranked factor and a progressively smaller amount to every other factor in the top 10.  This is a good method for identifying the likely contenders in each race.

The WIN % button will create a weighted mix based on the factors that produce the highest percentage of winners. The highest weighted factor will be the one with the highest win %.  This button will identify a top win candidate.

This button will create a mix using factors that are good at identifying horses that will hit the board.  For each factor category (Speed, Pace, Earnings, Trainer Jockey, Class, Form, Pedigree) the factor that is most likely to predict a top 4 finish is weighted and used as part of the mix.  This is a great tool for finding a key horse for Trifectas and Superfectas.

This button creates a mix using the top factor in each category (Speed, Pace, Earnings, Trainer Jockey, Class, Form, Pedigree). The factors are weighted based on their overall rank.  Using this button will identify the most "balanced" horse in the race, the one that ranks highly in each factor category.

This button uses factors that have high WIN ROI$.  Factors with high can identify horses that are potential longshots.  If the highest ranked horse using this mix is going off at high odds, then it means that the horse fits the profile of the typical longshot winner of the race type you are handicapping.

After a full summer of juvenile racing some new sires with first racing two-year-olds (first crop sires) have emerged that need to be kept on handicapper’s radars. One of those is Darley America’s Girolamo.

This son of A. P. Indy, who stood for just a $5,000 stud fee in 2015, is the sire of seven winners already from 20 starters. That figure puts him in a tie for second behind only Twirling Candy (10 winners) among first crop sires. Girolamo stood his first two years at Sequel Stallions New York and four of his early winners have come against state-bred company. He even appears to have a star-in-the-making in She’s All Ready, who’s dominated her first two starts by a combined 11 ¼ lengths, including a win in the $200,000 Seeking the Ante Stakes last Friday at Saratoga.

All seven of Girolamo winners have won at first asking and he’s had a winner on the grass and on a sloppy main track. Three Girolamo firsters have gone off favored with three others returning double-digit mutuels. Here’s a further breakdown of his seven winners:

*race favorite

In his racing days, Girolamo was more of an outlier for A. P. Indy, one of North America’s top late-developing and classic-distance influences. He was favored in his racing debut at Saratoga in mid-August of his juvenile season and didn’t disappoint. Coming out of the Kiaran McLaughlin barn, Girolamo coasted home under Alan Garcia by 3 ¾ lengths in a 7F main track Maiden Special. McLaughlin started him twice more at two with unplaced finishes in the Futurity Stakes & Champagne Stakes the result.

Girolamo's signature wins came later. At 3 he captured in the Grade 2 Jerome Stakes going a one-turn mile at Belmont Park and added the trophy for Grade 1 Vosburgh Stakes going 7/8ths the following season.

Girolamo certainly has the pedigree to be a top flight stallion. A. P. Indy is the sire of several successful/important sons - Bernardini, Pulpit, Malibu Moon, Mineshaft, Congrats among them. As is the case with Girolamo, the dams of the latter four are daughters of the great Mr. Prospector (and Bernardini’s dam is a Mr. Prospector great-granddaughter).

Girolamo’s female lineage is also exceptionally strong. The famed Carnegie/Phipps breeding operation cultivated this female family, one that's already produced successful stallions like Private Account, Mutakddim and the Maryland stalwart sire Not For Love (also the damsire of California Chrome). Girolamo’s full sister, Supercharger, is the dam of 2010 Kentucky Derby hero Super Saver, who is also emerging as a new force in the North America sire ranks. The WinStar Farm stallion now has three Grade 1 winners in his first crop, two at this year’s Saratoga meeting (Alabama winner Embellish the Lace and King’s Bishop winner Runhappy).

With this kind of pedigree it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Girolamo’s train on and excel as more distance racing is carded in the coming months. From what we've already seen, his sons and daughters should be respected no matter where they show up.

Twirling Candy is out of the gate with 12 winners so far, the most of any North American first crop sire. Queen of Silence became winner number one on May 25 with a debut victory going 5/8ths on the Gulfstream Park turf course at odds of 10-1. Three more Twirling Candys have won on the grass and two others have earned victories on the all-weather tracks at Woodbine and Presque Isle Downs. 

Overall, the 12 Twirling Candy winners have come at 12 different tracks from California to Oklahoma to Florida and even over the famed course at Epsom Downs in England. 

The connections of these early winners appear to feel they have some quality as evidenced by the fact that six of the winners have come back to compete against stakes company. Two of them, Annie's Candy and Conquest Twitter, have picked blacktype placings and Sanford Stakes (G3) starter Twirling Cinnamon is entered in Saturday's Iroquois Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs.

Half of the sons and daughters of Twirling Candy have won at first asking, two second-time out, while a quartet took a little more time to get going, breaking through in their third starts.

Here's the full breakdown of the first 12 Twirling Candy winners:

*race favorite

Twirling Candy was a speedy and versatile runner on the Southern California circuit so it’s no surprise that we’re seeing his early runners performing on a variety of surfaces.

The son of the brilliant and undefeated Candy Ride went wire-to-wire in his racing debut in November of his juvenile season, a 7F affair over the all-weather surface at Hollywood Park. On the shelf until the following May, he reeled off three more victories, two of them on the grass at Del Mar in the Oceanside Stakes and Del Mar Derby (G2). Twirling Candy suffered his first loss next out against older runners in the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes (now the Awesome Again Stakes). He then closed out his three-year-old campaign in with a track record performance, shading 1:20 in the 7F Malibu Stakes (G1) on the Santa Anita main track (1:19.70).

Twirling Candy's dam is a daughter of the Juddmonte Farm-bred turf star Chester House (a half-brother to American Pharoah's grandsire Empire Maker) which helps explain not only his own affinity for the lawn but also his progeny’s. We’ll have to wait and see if the Twirling Candys will excel at longer distances but both of his grandsires were Grade 1 winners at 10 furlongs and his fifth dam produced none other than 1978 Triple Crown hero Affirmed. For now, it's a good idea to give the sons and daughters of Twirling Candy a long look on any surface, at any track, anywhere in the world.

In the past two Factoring Pedigree posts we profiled the emerging first crop sires Girolamo and Twirling Candy. But it’s Scat Daddy who rules as North America's overall sire of two-year-olds this year, and by a wide margin.

The Ashford Stud stallion has 20 juvenile winners so far, well ahead of Twirling Candy’s 12, and his babies have racked up nearly $1.5 million in purses. A very impressive five of those winners are already stakes winners and they've captured a good number of the major North American juvenile blacktype races on the grass.

That Scat Daddy is a good sire of two-year-olds is no surprise. He won three of his first four starts at two, including the Champagne Stakes (G1). He was a good early three-year-old as well notching the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) before being injured during his 18th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby.

Scat Daddy also hails from a sire-line known for juvenile performance. His great grandsire, Storm Cat won the Grade 1 Young America Stakes in 1985 before being nosed out by Tasso in the second Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Storm Cat, of course, went to be one of the all-time great sires and Hennessy was one of his early stars after taking the Hopeful Stakes (G1) and just falling short to Unbridled’s Song in the 1995 BC Juvenile. Hennessy then sired Scat Daddy’s sire Johannesburg, who was able to win the Juvenile in 2001, finishing off an unbeaten international juvenile campaign.

Johannesburg was a Group 1 winner on European grass courses, so while Scat Daddy never ran on the grass, he is passing on his sire’s aptitude for the lawn.

Scat Daddy’s two-year-old daughter Acapulco scored one for the U. S. in the June 17 Queen Mary Stakes (G2) at the Royal Ascot meeting. Both juvenile turf stakes at Saratoga fell to the Scat Daddy clan - Azar (Grade 2 With Anticipation Stakes) and Harmonize (P. G. Johnson Stakes). And just last Sunday, Conquest Daddyo scored in the Grade 2 Summer Stakes on the lush Woodbine grass course. Scat Daddy also has a good 2015 dirt juvenile in Pretty N Cool, winner of the Sorrento Stakes (G2) and runner-up to Songbird in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante.

Overall, 17 of Scat Daddy's first 30  blacktype winners (56%) have won on the turf.

Scat Daddy was the #3 first crop sire in 2011 and made it up to 10th on the 2014 two-year-old sire list (after finishing 32nd and 70th the previous two seasons). Part of the reason we’re seeing so many Scat Daddy winners and stakes winners is simply that there are a lot of them out there - 150 to be exact. But make no mistake, he’s clearly establishing himself as an elite juvenile sire and one of the very best sires of any kind on the international stage. It will certainly be hard to ignore his sons and daughters at the windows in this fall's juvenile grass races.

Scat Daddy's 2015 Royal Ascot winner Acapulco.

Sons and daughters of the stallion Lonhro have been popping up (and winning) juvenile races all over North America and Europe. But just who is this Lonhro character?

Nicknamed 'The Black Flash', Lonhro was a star on the Australian turf so Northern Hemisphere bettors and racing fans can be forgiven for being in the dark about this son of Octagonal. He was a Group 3 winner at two, a champion at three and Horse of the Year at five. His credentials earned him a plaque in the Australian Racing Hall of Fame in 2014.

He's carried that success over to the breeding shed, earning a sire championship Down Under as well. The now 17-year-old was imported to Darley America for the 2012 and 2013 Northern Hemisphere breeding seasons and we're now seeing the resulting juveniles from that first term.

Lonhro's initial Northern Hemisphere-bred winner appeared back on March 28 when Rah Rah notched a debut victory in a 5F Maiden race Kempton's all-weather course in the UK. After three more European winners, Holding Gold became the first Lonhro juvenile winner in North America when he emerged from the Mark Casse barn to capture his July 19 debut at Woodbine. So far a total of 11 Lonhro two-year-olds have found the winner's enclosure north of the equator.

Australian racing is conducted exclusively on turf so it's no surprise that only one of these first 11 Lonhro winners has scored on dirt (that being Ponytail, winner of her second start at Parx for trainer Michael Matz).

Lonhro does have some American influences in his pedigree - his dam is granddaughter of Mr. Prospector - but bettors shouldn't expect many main track winners from this sire. Lonhro was more adept at middle distances too, so the turf marathons his progeny will face later on could prove to be beyond their scope. For the time being though, the Lonhro's should be respected early in their careers whenever they break from the gate on grass and all-weather surfaces.

A full breakdown of Lonhro's first 11 winners:

*race favorite

It's not unusual for a Florida-based stallion to rocket up the first crop sire charts. Kantharos and Wildcat Heir are a couple of recent top 10 freshman sires who hailed from the Sunshine State. Those two were speedy and precious and so are most of their progeny. In 2015, we've seen a different type emerge in the form of Double Diamond Farm's First Dude, who is currently running second to Uncle Mo in the North American freshman sire race.

After a winless juvenile season (two runner-up finishes) First Dude was a major player in the three-year-old division in 2010. He broke his maiden going a mile at Gulfstream Park, ran third in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and was second-best in the Preakness Stakes (G1) behind Lookin at Lucky. From there he placed in four more graded stakes but didn't find the winner's circle until a three-win four-year-old season that included a stunning victory over Game on Dude in the 10-furlong Hollywood Gold Cup (G1).

As a sire, First Dude is up to 11 winners after Flora Dora broke her maiden in the $500,000 My Dear Girl Stakes going 8.5-furlongs at Gulfstream Park on October 3. Another First Dude daughter, Enterprising Lady, ran second in that race. She's one of First Dude's four first out winners. Four other 'Dudes' won at second asking with three scoring in their third starts or later.

After an initial string of five straight Maiden Special winners, five of the past six First Dude winners have come in Maiden Claimers. Three of those winners were coming off failed attempts versus Maiden Special company.

As a son of the A. P. Indy distance specialist Stephen Got Even, and 10-furlong winner himself, it's a bit surprising to see so many First Dude winners at this point in the season. Bettors can expect his progeny's success to continue as they mature and face up to longer distances, no matter where they appear on the class ladder. The one caution might be off-tracks. Save for a single turf winner, all of the First Dude winners have come on fast main tracks.

Here's a rundown of the first 11 First Dude winners:

*race favorite

We've seen a good amount of both quantity and quality so far from the first juveniles by Archarcharch. The Spendthrift Farm stallion is the sire of 38 starters and 10 winners as of October 15, both figures ranking fifth among North American first crop sires.

Archarcharch is a son of (just) Arch, a son of Kris S. and a grandson of Roberto. His sire-line is more known for distance and turf but Archarcharch was a sprint stakes winner at two and raced exclusively on dirt. He won the 6F Sugar Bowl Stakes in mid-December of his juvenile season and then competed in the Oaklawn Park spring classics prep series culminating in an upset victory (at 25-1) of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. An injury sustained during his 15th-place finish in Animal Kingdom's Kentucky Derby sent him to Spendthrift Farm for stud duty beginning in 2012.

Archarcharch broke his maiden in that Sugar Bowl win so it's only fitting that his first stakes winner, Toews on Ice, won his first race in the $100,000 Barretts Juvenile Stakes (by 7 1/2 lengths). It's true that Allowance races for juveniles can be lacking but the fact that five other Archarcharch winners have competed in stakes so far is a likely indication of their quality (at least in the eyes of their connections). The maiden Next Shares has also earned some blacktype with a runner-up effort in the Grade 2 With Anticipation Stakes at Saratoga. As of this writing the unbeaten Go No Go is entered in the Oklahoma Classic Lassie Stakes on October 16 at Remington Park.

Go No Go is the 2-1 second choice on the morning line but we find that most of the Archarcharch winners have rewarded bettors more handsomely. Only one his winners has gone favored and they've paid off at an average rate of 7-1.

Archarcharch has sired three turf winners and his progeny can be expected to do just fine on that surface despite the fact that their sire never touched the stuff. Along with his own turf-leaning sire-line he's out of a daughter of Irish juvenile champion Woodman (by Mr. Prospector) and his second dam is a daughter of the prolific turf sire Nureyev.

Here's a breakdown of the first 10 winners by Archarcharch

* race favorite